In about 4 months from now Nigerians will go to the polls to elect a president for the next 4 years.
Some of us (Nigerians) are tired of the ineptitude of this current government, where there's no accountability, instead unbridled audacious acts epitomise this government - that's a topic for another day. Thus, we see APC an alternative to the current goons in power, judging from the fanfare that greeted the formation of APC. This gave people hope of a viable opposition that can finally defeat PDP/Jonathan. However APC failed to manage their intial success, allowing key persons like Shekarau and Bafarawa to leave the party. In my opinion, the exit of Shekarau is a big minus for APC, because this guy has a huge amount of follwers compared to Kwankwaso.
Another minus for the APC is their aggressive propaganda, always criticising the ruling party rather than an issue based propaganda which will enable them sell their ideas and ideology beyond 'removing PDP/Jonathan'.
Also, APC should know that they cannot out spend the rulling party, for PDP will spend double of what APC will spend (power of incumbency) all they(APC) need to do is to convince Nigerians that they have an ideology beyond 'removing Jonathan' which will be beneficial to the nation at large.
Having said all the above, the 60 years rule of PDP is becoming more of a reality than a myth which I will try to highlight in the next few paragraphs
There are 2 big wigs fighting for the APC presidential ticket- Atiku and Buhari. I fear whoever does not get the ticket will leave the party, there by taking some votes away from APC.
I can tell you categorically that PDP will have 95% of votes in the south east and south south _ this is the strong hold of Jonathan. Judging from last election the votes in the south west will be shared. Let's assume 45:55% in favour of APC. Most likely elections will not hold in most parts of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe(these states are controlled by APC)this is a minus for APC, votes will be shared in the remaining part of the north. From my shady assumptions and calculations, it's a PDP victory.
The leverage APC have at the moment is the idea that a northerner should be president. After this Jonathan dispensation PDP will likely present a northern candidate in 2019, this will tilt the odds in favour PDP.
A PDP victory in 2015 only makes Ogbulafor's statement more of a reality.
It's my sincere hope that my permutations, assumptions and calculations are wrong. For I will like to see a change in governance in this country, I will like to see another party aside PDP in Aso Rock Villa come 2015.
Note: Views expressed above are subjective views of Gbenga Oderinwale. You can follow on twitter @gbenga__ or email: gbengaoderinwale@gmail.com
